Leonids 2006

In 2006, the Moon will not be a hindrance.Although certain parts of the world are favoured for intense activity this year, i encourage people everywhere to watch the sky on Nov. 19th. The Leonids might surprise us... Predicted outbursts might fizzle, and activity could surge at unexpected times.

2006 Leonid Forecasts

THE PLACE	THE TIME	THE FORECAST (ZHR)
Hawaii	Nov. 19	--
Australia, Indonesia, Japan, east Asia	Nov. 19	30 per hour +
Europe	Nov. 19, 4:44 UT	80 per hour +
Americas	---	--

Table notes: UT is Universal Time, also known as Greenwich Mean Time or GMT. UT values above refer to Nov. 17th. Because of the international date line, observers in Asian countries will see their Leonids before dawn on Nov. 19th local time.

With the Leonids there are no guarantees.
Any morning between November 16-20 would be a good bet to watch for Leonids. Unless exceptional activity is predicted, Leonid watches should start at about 2am and continue until morning twilight, as the radiant is at a satisfactory altitude during these hours. Fortunatly, the Moon will not interfere this year , the near New Moon will set by the time of the peak for most of the UK .
The shower's parent comet, 55P/Tempel-Tuttle had returned to its perihelion in 1998, should mean 2006 will see a continuing decline in activity. However, in 2003 and 2004 activity was slightly above the background level with ZHRs of 60 and 28 respectively.

No matter, the coming shower will surely send some sky watchers home with life-long memories. "I'll never forget the night of Nov 19th," they might recall years from now -- One thing is certain: if you stay indoors you won't see anything!